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Differential Dynamic Causal Nets: Model Construction, Identification and Group Comparisons

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Pathophysiolpgical modelling of brain systems from microscale to macroscale remains difficult in group comparisons partly because of the infeasibility of modelling the interactions of thousands of neurons at the scales involved. Here, to address the challenge, we present a novel approach to construct differential causal networks directly from electroencephalogram (EEG) data. The proposed network is based on conditionally coupled neuronal circuits which describe the average behaviour of interacting neuron populations that contribute to observed EEG data. In the network, each node represents a parameterised local neural system while directed edges stand for node-wise connections with transmission parameters. The network is hierarchically structured in the sense that node and edge parameters are varying in subjects but follow a mixed-effects model. A novel evolutionary optimisation algorithm for parameter inference in the proposed method is developed using a loss function derived from Chen-Fliess expansions of stochastic differential equations. The method is demonstrated by application to the fitting of coupled Jansen-Rit local models. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real EEG data. In the real EEG data analysis, we track changes in the parameters that characterise dynamic causality within brains that demonstrate epileptic activity. We show evidence of network functional disruptions, due to imbalance of excitatory-inhibitory interneurons and altered epileptic brain connectivity, before and during seizure periods.


Famous phallic tapestry may have entertained monks during meals

Popular Science

The 770-pound Bayeux Tapestry depicts the Norman conquest of England in 1066. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Whether it's the morning paper, the games on the back of a cereal box, or just scrolling through social media, there is something nice about reading with a meal. For the monks living in St. Augustine's Abbey in Canterbury, England, one of the most famous (and phallic) tapestries in the world may have been their equivalent to the back of the cereal box. New research recently published in the journal claims that the 1,000-year-old Bayeux Tapestry may have served as mealtime reading.



Financial Data Analysis with Robust Federated Logistic Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Financial data analysis plays a pivotal role in today's business landscape [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7], including credit risk assessment (such as loan prediction and credit scoring), fraud detection, and cost optimization, etc. However, when we develop solutions to address financial problems, we will inevitably encounter a number of key challenges [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. For example, financial data is often voluminous, dynamically and frequently generated in real time, and distributed across diverse locations, making it challenging to process and analyze in a centralized manner[1], e.g., the New Y ork Stock Exchange (NYSE) alone has billions of transactions per day. Similarly, other major exchanges, such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE), also generate vast amounts of stock data. Additionally, noise and missing values unavoidably occur in financial data, which can cause results and predictions to be skewed (or even completely wrong). These challenges require firms to come up with more efficient and smarter solutions. In recent decades, machine learning has achieved remarkable success across various domains [8, 9, 10], owing to its effective generalization ability and adaptability, and has also received increasing attention in financial data analysis [11, 12], such as credit risk assessment, resource allocation, and cost optimization. However, these classical (supervised) machine learning based solutions, such as logistic regression and random forest, usually implicitly assume that 1) all the data is stored and centralized at one location, typically a single machine, and that we have full access to the entire data; 2) these algorithms expect to run on a single machine with minimal concerns for memory or disk storage limitations; and 3) the provided data is clean and free from outliers introduced by malicious adversaries, as it is stored at a single location equipped with high security protection mechanisms to prevent data corruption. Nonetheless, these assumptions do not always hold in practice.


CyberLLMInstruct: A New Dataset for Analysing Safety of Fine-Tuned LLMs Using Cyber Security Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of large language models (LLMs) into cyber security applications presents significant opportunities, such as enhancing threat analysis and malware detection, but can also introduce critical risks and safety concerns, including personal data leakage and automated generation of new malware. To address these challenges, we developed CyberLLMInstruct, a dataset of 54,928 instruction-response pairs spanning cyber security tasks such as malware analysis, phishing simulations, and zero-day vulnerabilities. The dataset was constructed through a multi-stage process. This involved sourcing data from multiple resources, filtering and structuring it into instruction-response pairs, and aligning it with real-world scenarios to enhance its applicability. Seven open-source LLMs were chosen to test the usefulness of CyberLLMInstruct: Phi 3 Mini 3.8B, Mistral 7B, Qwen 2.5 7B, Llama 3 8B, Llama 3.1 8B, Gemma 2 9B, and Llama 2 70B. In our primary example, we rigorously assess the safety of fine-tuned models using the OWASP top 10 framework, finding that fine-tuning reduces safety resilience across all tested LLMs and every adversarial attack (e.g., the security score of Llama 3.1 8B against prompt injection drops from 0.95 to 0.15). In our second example, we show that these same fine-tuned models can also achieve up to 92.50 percent accuracy on the CyberMetric benchmark. These findings highlight a trade-off between performance and safety, showing the importance of adversarial testing and further research into fine-tuning methodologies that can mitigate safety risks while still improving performance across diverse datasets and domains. All scripts required to reproduce the dataset, along with examples and relevant resources for replicating our results, will be made available upon the paper's acceptance.


Can Large Language Models Outperform Non-Experts in Poetry Evaluation? A Comparative Study Using the Consensual Assessment Technique

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Consensual Assessment Technique (CAT) evaluates creativity through holistic expert judgments. We investigate the use of two advanced Large Language Models (LLMs), Claude-3-Opus and GPT-4o, to evaluate poetry by a methodology inspired by the CAT. Using a dataset of 90 poems, we found that these LLMs can surpass the results achieved by non-expert human judges at matching a ground truth based on publication venue, particularly when assessing smaller subsets of poems. Claude-3-Opus exhibited slightly superior performance than GPT-4o. We show that LLMs are viable tools for accurately assessing poetry, paving the way for their broader application into other creative domains.


From Knowledge Generation to Knowledge Verification: Examining the BioMedical Generative Capabilities of ChatGPT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The generative capabilities of LLM models present opportunities in accelerating tasks and concerns with the authenticity of the knowledge it produces. To address the concerns, we present a computational approach that systematically evaluates the factual accuracy of biomedical knowledge that an LLM model has been prompted to generate. Our approach encompasses two processes: the generation of disease-centric associations and the verification of them using the semantic knowledge of the biomedical ontologies. Using ChatGPT as the select LLM model, we designed a set of prompt-engineering processes to generate linkages between diseases, drugs, symptoms, and genes to establish grounds for assessments. Experimental results demonstrate high accuracy in identifying disease terms (88%-97%), drug names (90%-91%), and genetic information (88%-98%). The symptom term identification accuracy was notably lower (49%-61%), as verified against the DOID, ChEBI, SYMPTOM, and GO ontologies accordingly. The verification of associations reveals literature coverage rates of (89%-91%) among disease-drug and disease-gene associations. The low identification accuracy for symptom terms also contributed to the verification of symptom-related associations (49%-62%).


Two-stage hybrid models for enhancing forecasting accuracy on heterogeneous time series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Compared to local models built in a series-by-series manner, global models leverage relevant information across time series, resulting in improved forecasting performance and generalization capacity. Constructing global models on a set of time series is becoming mainstream in the field of time series forecasting. However, the advantages of global models may not always be realized when dealing with heterogeneous data. While they can adapt to heterogeneous datasets by increasing the model complexity, the model cannot be infinitely complex due to the finite sample size, which poses challenges for the application of global models. Additionally, determining whether the time series data is homogeneous or heterogeneous can be ambiguous in practice. To address these research gaps, this paper argues that the heterogeneity of the data should be defined by the global model used, and for each series, the portion not modelled by the global model represents heterogeneity. It further proposes two-stage hybrid models, which include a second stage to identify and model heterogeneous patterns. In this second stage, we can estimate either all local models or sub-global models across different domains divided based on heterogeneity. Experiments on four open datasets reveal that the proposed methods significantly outperform five existing models, indicating they contribute to fully unleash the potential of global models on heterogeneous datasets.


Local Differential Privacy is Not Enough: A Sample Reconstruction Attack against Federated Learning with Local Differential Privacy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reconstruction attacks against federated learning (FL) aim to reconstruct users' samples through users' uploaded gradients. Local differential privacy (LDP) is regarded as an effective defense against various attacks, including sample reconstruction in FL, where gradients are clipped and perturbed. Existing attacks are ineffective in FL with LDP since clipped and perturbed gradients obliterate most sample information for reconstruction. Besides, existing attacks embed additional sample information into gradients to improve the attack effect and cause gradient expansion, leading to a more severe gradient clipping in FL with LDP. In this paper, we propose a sample reconstruction attack against LDP-based FL with any target models to reconstruct victims' sensitive samples to illustrate that FL with LDP is not flawless. Considering gradient expansion in reconstruction attacks and noise in LDP, the core of the proposed attack is gradient compression and reconstructed sample denoising. For gradient compression, an inference structure based on sample characteristics is presented to reduce redundant gradients against LDP. For reconstructed sample denoising, we artificially introduce zero gradients to observe noise distribution and scale confidence interval to filter the noise. Theoretical proof guarantees the effectiveness of the proposed attack. Evaluations show that the proposed attack is the only attack that reconstructs victims' training samples in LDP-based FL and has little impact on the target model's accuracy. We conclude that LDP-based FL needs further improvements to defend against sample reconstruction attacks effectively.